According to the government and specialists, the war in the Middle East is likely to put upward pressure on oil prices, which could further increase Brazil’s surplus in this category. However, prices of goods that Brazil depends on importing—such as agricultural inputs—may also rise.

Brazilian exports totaled $26.3 billion in February, an increase of 15.6%. Imports reached $22.1 billion, a decline of 4.8%.

In the first two months of the year, exports totaled $50.9 billion, up 5.8%, while imports amounted to $42.9 billion, down 7.3% compared with the same period in 2025. The trade surplus for the first two months reached $8 billion, more than four times the $1.9 billion recorded in the same period of 2025, according to the Secretariat of Foreign Trade.

“February was the month of commodities,” said José Augusto de Castro, president of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Association, commented on the push from exports. Oil, soybeans, and iron ore increased export values in February, with rises of 76.5%, 15.5%, and 20.9%, respectively, compared with the same month in 2025.

Castro highlighted oil, whose export volume more than doubled, rising 110.8%, which offset a 16.3% drop in prices. According to him, the increased export volume had already been expected. Shipments may be further boosted by the effects of the Middle East conflict, which has already pushed up the price of Brent crude oil. Early signs of higher prices, he said, may appear in the March trade balance.

Oil also showed notable performance in the first two months of the year, Castro noted, with a 14.5% increase in export value. The shipped volume rose 39.5% compared with the same months of 2025, while prices fell 17.9%.

“In 2025, oil was the country’s most exported item, but soybeans were almost tied. This year everything indicates that oil may clearly take the lead,” Castro said. Oil accounted for 12.8% of Brazilian exports in 2025, followed by 12.5% for soybeans.

Herlon Brandão, director of the Department of Foreign Trade Statistics and Studies, said higher oil prices could expand the surplus in this segment. However, he stressed that the effects are not necessarily only positive.

According to Brandão, the war could trigger a series of price impacts, including on strategic inputs. One example is the fertilizer market, of which Brazil is a major importer.

He also noted that the Middle East is a major consumer of Brazilian food products. In 2025, according to Secex data, the region received 32% of all Brazilian corn exports and 30% of poultry exports. In this context, possible logistical blockages or maritime transport disruptions caused by the conflict could affect shipments of these products. The Middle East accounts for about 4.6% of Brazilian exports.

Looking at exports by destination, shipments to the United States continued to decline in February, highlighted André Valério, an economist at Banco Inter. Export revenue from shipments to the U.S. fell 20.3% compared with February 2025.

He noted that the data still does not reflect the decision by the Supreme Court of the United States, which ruled the so-called “tariff hike package” illegal. Brazil could become one of the biggest beneficiaries, but the recovery of exports to the U.S. remains uncertain because the reorganization between buyers and suppliers may have created lasting effects on trade relations between Brazil and the U.S.

Ariane Benedito, chief economist at PicPay, highlighted that besides the decline in exports to the U.S., shipments to Argentina also fell in February (-26.5%). Exports to China rose 38.7%, while shipments to the European Union increased 34.7%. She also noted increased exports to India and Germany in February.

According to Benedito, this movement appears to reflect sporadic shipments of commodities, particularly oil and metals, which tend to show high monthly volatility due to logistical factors. Even so, she said the result is consistent with a structural trend of greater Brazilian integration into Asian markets and European industrial demand.

She also noted that expectations regarding the implementation of the Mercosur–European Union Free Trade Agreement may already be facilitating direct negotiations with European partners.

On the import side, there was broad-based contraction, suggesting a slowdown in domestic demand and possible inventory adjustments. Imports from major trading partners declined as trade flows moderated.